ODM's regional manifestos

In an innovative departure from the dull and meaningless campaign adopted by each of its opponents, the ODM party of Raila Odinga has been rolling out regional manifestos. Call them vote shopping wish-lists but I think it is time we paid attention to this revolutionary approach of decentralising the campaign issues in order to magnify the needs of the regions rather dealing with them in the haphazard nature that fails to delineate the regional pressing needs from the national obsessions. This is indeed in keeping with the confessed Majimbo system of governance which is espoused by ODM and which it wishes to introduce upon clinching power. While we find this approach to be appropriate because it gives prominence to the needs and aspirations of each region, we find stark contrasts with the other contestants. PNU, when they are not involved in those endless in-fightings (sic) are busy telling us about the yesterday of (good) Kibaki and (bad) Raila. But they only mention the yesterday of Moi to drive the point that Kibaki's yesterday is miles apart from Moi's (terrible) yesterday. Forget that the two are at the moment scheming to stymie Mr Odinga's (brighter) tomorrow for Kenya. At the same time, when the PNU is not involved in internecine fighting and squabbles, they are busy lumping together the needs of all Kenyans as ONE. It is as if the priority for a cattle-rustling victim in the North Rift is same as those of a victim of fishing-territory offender from Uganda. Much the same way that Mungiki is not an issue to Kakamega, the tribal clashes we witness in Molo and Mt. Elgon are not the concern of the people of Marsabit in the marginalised NFD (a derogatory colonial tag this!).

ODM's approach needs, therefore, to be critiqued against the background that the country has been developing since independence and even before that in a skewed manner only beneficial to the ruling class. Kenyatta grabbed and amassed land at the coast and in the Rift Valley and the greater Kiambu in proportions that we cannot comprehend. Moi after him grabbed forest land and relocated the Ogiek to pave way for his tea at Kiptagich while spreading his wings far and wide including grabbing of the East Africa Tanning and Extract (EATEC) farm. Kibaki is equally a beneficiary of massively faulty land allocation policies, he owns large chunks of land in Bahati among others and it will not be lost on any casual observer that the war in Kenya's 2007 election is a class war. In this regard, the have-nots are waging a war against the haves and it is interesting that Raila, an equally wealthy and 'landly (sic)' investor is the champion and epitome of that class contest pitting the bourgeois class against the proletariat peasants. Incidentally, those who own the means of production (land as an indispensable capital) under-utilise it while those who are itching to eke out a decent living have nothing to do because of deliberate state-sponsored (or failure to act otherwise) deprivation and failure to redress land distribution.

ODM's patent-like political ideation therefore invites a thorough re-examination of our approach to Majimbo. If there be anything compulsive about the need to go regional and devolve not only power but agenda and resources, it is the absurdity with which our governance system continues to treat the down-trodden regions. Any sensible Kenyan should be excused for wasting the optimism about Kibaki, read Hon Kirwa' ministry of Agriculture, to rid Kenya of the begging basket and the eyesore of famine and starvation. Some of these scenes, we hasten to add, are always witnessed notwithstanding the glut in harvest in the areas that have the ecological conditions to feed the country. ODM wishes to deal with each region as a unique entity and in this way provide a local agenda which will address 'local' issues and concerns. After all we were educated by the fractious PNU that politics is 'local', so have a taste of your own medicine! ODM wishes to strengthen farming for example where this is a priority, it will protect the farmer against the vagaries of rustling and drought (by introducing an insurance package) to the pastoralists.

In today's climax, ODM has rolled out a clear agenda to restore order and governance to Nairobi (once touted as the city in the sun) and spur economic growth. Now we are likely to hear Hon. Musyoka, he of the miracle (forget about Bishop Deya of the miracle babies infamy for a while), crying of political plagiarism and theft of his ideas. But we have seen how disjointed an idea his (Kalonzo’s) 24-hr working nation is. It needed things to fall in place; people are secure if and when there is not only security but something worthwhile doing. It is meaningless to engage farmers in the farm working for returns as ridiculous as KShs 400/acre/year. A regional panacea for each and every nook and cranny of Kenya is needed and ODM’s devolution of its grand manifesto is political innovation akin to none in this campaign.

Back to my question, how workable then are ODM's agenda for the Rift Valley (or your region for that matter) after the elections or are they mere shopping basket trap decoys to woo the votes? How well are these 'local' agenda resonating with people in the respective regions? One thing is clear, though, that whether the issues are realised or not the regional manifestos are going to gain currency with every coming election and who knows whether this may not lead to an evolution of a regional 'scorecard' for the office-seekers. Where the yardstick is improved, the voter stands a better chance to evaluate the re-election seeker against past promises made and contained in ‘regional mini-manifestos’.

Steadman's plan B for PNU

I have a feeling that something subtle yet dramatic may have happened in the opinion polls 'engineering' by Steadman. Having failed to scare and drift the public towards Kibaki by eating into Raila's bloc, I have nasty feeling and I hope my guts are wrong. It is possible to see why Kalonzo's figures are consistently lower than the other figures from the poll groups commissioned by the Nation Media Group. Imagine that the message will be targeted at sending the message to Kalonzo that he will not make it to the top and therefore precipitate a reluctant, albeit deliberate, throwing in of the towel and enjoining of the Kalonzo and Kibaki campaigns.

Naturally, Kalonzo comes out as a more pro-establishment figure than one with the balls to go the mile. If he were to succumb to the 'intelligence reports' that indicates that he is a sure Veep (if a stop-gap one to be dumped in 2012 for Uhuru or Saitoti's ascendancy to the presidency), he is likely to slow down his campaign under the pretext that 'Kenyans had decided for either the extremist Raila or the moderate Kibaki'. Being concerned for the 'stability of the Nation', he decides to give up his presidential bid and ask his followers (read the Akamba) to vote for ODM-K MPs and cast the presidential ballot either way. The hope in the Kibaki campaign is that the natural choice for the ODM-K followers is Kibaki because of the bitter-sweet rivalry between their man and Raila. In this light, see the 10% 'allocated' to Kalonzo as a mixed signal that in spite of expending a lot of resources (money, and which can be repaid from the billions in PNU's coffers) and energy, he had only improved two percentage points from his traditional pool of 8%.

This will be informed by the assumption that Kalonzo obstinacy and pride would not betray the PNU projection and that being wise and calculating about tomorrow he had better support his Bantu cousins in Gema. Therefore, the bandons altogether or slows down his campaign and in that case PNU goes full throttle to Ukambani and sings praises about Kalonzo's clean record and the 'wrong timing' of his candidature. The Kamba should vote for Kibaki now, Kalonzo may be supported in future by the traditional Kibaki vote-basket. Blah, blah, blah.

I tend to think, therefore that this 10% is meant to 'frustrate Kalonzo' and help him give in (and give up). Matters are not helped by sketchy but consistent reports in the intelligence community filtering in to the effect that Mutula Kilonzo, his voluble Secretary General is being boxed in (over tax evasion during his deal-making?) by the KRA through (you got it right), Mr Waweru. Reportedly, Kilonzo has up to Monday (10th) to lead his (whole or part of) ODM-K to a PNU deal. Add this to the interesting revelation, if you like it to be so-called, that among Kalonzo's firm supporters and advisers is the embattled AIC Bishop, Moi confidant and regular State House visitor- Rev Silas Yego. Even if we wish to rule out any role by the politically savvy Rev Yego, remember that he has a battle for the control of the AIC (much like Rev Jackson Kosgey is fighting for the control of the Full Gospel Church!) pitting him against some erstwhile supporters in the AIC church in Nandi and the few Gikuyu adherents. He therefore needs Kalonzo, if to placate the other large AIC constituency of Ukambani which will then help prop him. It is not possible that Sila likes Kalonzo for the latter's politics, it is for his (Sila's) calculated survival. But as a man who was 'made by Moi' and continues to draw a lot of support from him (including financial), he is likely to do Mr Moi's bidding more than Kalonzo's. Remember 'he who pays the piper calls the tunes'.

I have this gutsy feeling, then that Steadman needed to do the groundwork: portray Kalonzo's campaign as making no meaningful headway and then Sila comes in with the rest of the deal. Wild allegations? Maybe, but watch this space! The idea will be to 'shift the support from Kalonzo rather than Raila', because the latter's support seems stuck in the believe that he is the man to beat.

PNU Campaign strategy deciphered

It is now apparent that even without straining we can see what PNU has gone out to do.
1. Ministers should take full blame from the people and absolve him from the same as much as possible. You will hear that in answer to allegations of insensitivity, arrogance and belligerence, his disciples have chosen to take the blows in order to sanitise him. In this light, you heard that it was not Kibaki but Kimunya who messed by dismissing the 'Mau Title deeds' as mere pieces of paper. Certainly the sting was taken from Kibaki, and since Kimunya is 'local' and doesn't fall within the constituency of those who were hurt and offended, you and I will be hoodwinked into seeing a harmless Kibaki 'surrounded by an arrogant mob of ministers'.

2. Identify pliable populations among the opposition-leaning communities and inundate them with pledge after pledge. Give them enough time to vent off their anger to harbingers like Uhuru Kenyatta and Njenga Karume to level the road for an eventual Kibaki visit. Why are Karume and Uhuru camping in Kipsigiisland? They have identified a fissure and waning of zest among certain quarters of the population. By camping in one section, they succeed in sowing seeds of suspicion.

3. On another front, they made sure that certain repugnant personalities are kept away from Kibaki. You will not see Governor Michuki in a Kibaki campaign, neither are you likely to see Nyachae in order to optimise the presence of youthful 'agents of confusion' like Uhuru Kenyatta, Mungatana and others.

4. Sustain a fear-mongering campaign to display the Kalenjiin for example as unsafe and vulnerable 'except in a Kibaki government'. You all heard of the leaflets (which message reached me at 8PM Kenyan time Mon, but which I initially doubted). If the aspect of fear is successfully instilled in the electorate, the gullible folk will troop to Kibaki's fold and 'kazi itaenderea'.

5. Sustain a negative media propaganda campaign against Raila.

6. Offer PNU and Kalonzo a deluge of state-media coverage while sustaining a tactful blackout on ODM activities.

7. Promote violence against Raila in PNU-leaning regions while potraying Kalonzo as harmless and barely threatening (and threatened) to the PNU campaign.

In view of these, how will civic education aimed at promoting rights awareness and help to make informed judgements be promoted?