I have a feeling that something subtle yet dramatic may have happened in the opinion polls 'engineering' by Steadman. Having failed to scare and drift the public towards Kibaki by eating into Raila's bloc, I have nasty feeling and I hope my guts are wrong. It is possible to see why Kalonzo's figures are consistently lower than the other figures from the poll groups commissioned by the Nation Media Group. Imagine that the message will be targeted at sending the message to Kalonzo that he will not make it to the top and therefore precipitate a reluctant, albeit deliberate, throwing in of the towel and enjoining of the Kalonzo and Kibaki campaigns.
Naturally, Kalonzo comes out as a more pro-establishment figure than one with the balls to go the mile. If he were to succumb to the 'intelligence reports' that indicates that he is a sure Veep (if a stop-gap one to be dumped in 2012 for Uhuru or Saitoti's ascendancy to the presidency), he is likely to slow down his campaign under the pretext that 'Kenyans had decided for either the extremist Raila or the moderate Kibaki'. Being concerned for the 'stability of the Nation', he decides to give up his presidential bid and ask his followers (read the Akamba) to vote for ODM-K MPs and cast the presidential ballot either way. The hope in the Kibaki campaign is that the natural choice for the ODM-K followers is Kibaki because of the bitter-sweet rivalry between their man and Raila. In this light, see the 10% 'allocated' to Kalonzo as a mixed signal that in spite of expending a lot of resources (money, and which can be repaid from the billions in PNU's coffers) and energy, he had only improved two percentage points from his traditional pool of 8%.
This will be informed by the assumption that Kalonzo obstinacy and pride would not betray the PNU projection and that being wise and calculating about tomorrow he had better support his Bantu cousins in Gema. Therefore, the bandons altogether or slows down his campaign and in that case PNU goes full throttle to Ukambani and sings praises about Kalonzo's clean record and the 'wrong timing' of his candidature. The Kamba should vote for Kibaki now, Kalonzo may be supported in future by the traditional Kibaki vote-basket. Blah, blah, blah.
I tend to think, therefore that this 10% is meant to 'frustrate Kalonzo' and help him give in (and give up). Matters are not helped by sketchy but consistent reports in the intelligence community filtering in to the effect that Mutula Kilonzo, his voluble Secretary General is being boxed in (over tax evasion during his deal-making?) by the KRA through (you got it right), Mr Waweru. Reportedly, Kilonzo has up to Monday (10th) to lead his (whole or part of) ODM-K to a PNU deal. Add this to the interesting revelation, if you like it to be so-called, that among Kalonzo's firm supporters and advisers is the embattled AIC Bishop, Moi confidant and regular State House visitor- Rev Silas Yego. Even if we wish to rule out any role by the politically savvy Rev Yego, remember that he has a battle for the control of the AIC (much like Rev Jackson Kosgey is fighting for the control of the Full Gospel Church!) pitting him against some erstwhile supporters in the AIC church in Nandi and the few Gikuyu adherents. He therefore needs Kalonzo, if to placate the other large AIC constituency of Ukambani which will then help prop him. It is not possible that Sila likes Kalonzo for the latter's politics, it is for his (Sila's) calculated survival. But as a man who was 'made by Moi' and continues to draw a lot of support from him (including financial), he is likely to do Mr Moi's bidding more than Kalonzo's. Remember 'he who pays the piper calls the tunes'.
I have this gutsy feeling, then that Steadman needed to do the groundwork: portray Kalonzo's campaign as making no meaningful headway and then Sila comes in with the rest of the deal. Wild allegations? Maybe, but watch this space! The idea will be to 'shift the support from Kalonzo rather than Raila', because the latter's support seems stuck in the believe that he is the man to beat.
Naturally, Kalonzo comes out as a more pro-establishment figure than one with the balls to go the mile. If he were to succumb to the 'intelligence reports' that indicates that he is a sure Veep (if a stop-gap one to be dumped in 2012 for Uhuru or Saitoti's ascendancy to the presidency), he is likely to slow down his campaign under the pretext that 'Kenyans had decided for either the extremist Raila or the moderate Kibaki'. Being concerned for the 'stability of the Nation', he decides to give up his presidential bid and ask his followers (read the Akamba) to vote for ODM-K MPs and cast the presidential ballot either way. The hope in the Kibaki campaign is that the natural choice for the ODM-K followers is Kibaki because of the bitter-sweet rivalry between their man and Raila. In this light, see the 10% 'allocated' to Kalonzo as a mixed signal that in spite of expending a lot of resources (money, and which can be repaid from the billions in PNU's coffers) and energy, he had only improved two percentage points from his traditional pool of 8%.
This will be informed by the assumption that Kalonzo obstinacy and pride would not betray the PNU projection and that being wise and calculating about tomorrow he had better support his Bantu cousins in Gema. Therefore, the bandons altogether or slows down his campaign and in that case PNU goes full throttle to Ukambani and sings praises about Kalonzo's clean record and the 'wrong timing' of his candidature. The Kamba should vote for Kibaki now, Kalonzo may be supported in future by the traditional Kibaki vote-basket. Blah, blah, blah.
I tend to think, therefore that this 10% is meant to 'frustrate Kalonzo' and help him give in (and give up). Matters are not helped by sketchy but consistent reports in the intelligence community filtering in to the effect that Mutula Kilonzo, his voluble Secretary General is being boxed in (over tax evasion during his deal-making?) by the KRA through (you got it right), Mr Waweru. Reportedly, Kilonzo has up to Monday (10th) to lead his (whole or part of) ODM-K to a PNU deal. Add this to the interesting revelation, if you like it to be so-called, that among Kalonzo's firm supporters and advisers is the embattled AIC Bishop, Moi confidant and regular State House visitor- Rev Silas Yego. Even if we wish to rule out any role by the politically savvy Rev Yego, remember that he has a battle for the control of the AIC (much like Rev Jackson Kosgey is fighting for the control of the Full Gospel Church!) pitting him against some erstwhile supporters in the AIC church in Nandi and the few Gikuyu adherents. He therefore needs Kalonzo, if to placate the other large AIC constituency of Ukambani which will then help prop him. It is not possible that Sila likes Kalonzo for the latter's politics, it is for his (Sila's) calculated survival. But as a man who was 'made by Moi' and continues to draw a lot of support from him (including financial), he is likely to do Mr Moi's bidding more than Kalonzo's. Remember 'he who pays the piper calls the tunes'.
I have this gutsy feeling, then that Steadman needed to do the groundwork: portray Kalonzo's campaign as making no meaningful headway and then Sila comes in with the rest of the deal. Wild allegations? Maybe, but watch this space! The idea will be to 'shift the support from Kalonzo rather than Raila', because the latter's support seems stuck in the believe that he is the man to beat.
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