The sound of silence

The Economist

The murky role of one of President Mwai Kibaki's closest new allies

IN THE six weeks since Kenya's disputed election, an array of bigwigs, from the UN secretary-general to the chairman of the African Union, have flown into Nairobi to urge Kenya's warring parties to negotiate. But this frenetic diplomacy serves only to amplify the silence coming out of China, which may soon be the only big country left that has omitted to send an envoy, special or otherwise, to see Mwai Kibaki, Kenya's unyielding president.

This is not for lack of interest. In Kenya, as elsewhere in Africa, the Chinese have a large and growing economic stake, which the Kenyan government is keen to emphasise. The Chinese defence minister visited just before the elections to agree to modernise Kenya's armed forces. Hu Jintao, China's president, honoured Kenya with three days of his attention on a whistle-stop tour of Africa in 2006. It is ideology, not indifference, that is keeping the Chinese away from the diplomacy.

China's stance is consistent with its policy of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs. An editorial in Beijing's People's Daily on January 14th upset Kenya's opposition by saying that “Western-style democratic theory simply isn't suited to African conditions but rather it carries with it the root of disaster. The elections crisis in Kenya is just one example.”

This sort of non-interference has consequences. With China to fall back on, Mr Kibaki may feel better able to cling on to power and withstand any Western threats to impose sanctions or suspend aid. According to the IMF, China's trade with Kenya was $706m in 2006, a startling 36% up on the year before. Kenya's trade with America, its largest Western partner, was $919m, but down on the previous year; with Britain it was $864m. The Chinese have invested in mining and offshore oil exploration, plus some big infrastructure projects, such as new bypasses around Nairobi.