Steadman's plan B for PNU

I have a feeling that something subtle yet dramatic may have happened in the opinion polls 'engineering' by Steadman. Having failed to scare and drift the public towards Kibaki by eating into Raila's bloc, I have nasty feeling and I hope my guts are wrong. It is possible to see why Kalonzo's figures are consistently lower than the other figures from the poll groups commissioned by the Nation Media Group. Imagine that the message will be targeted at sending the message to Kalonzo that he will not make it to the top and therefore precipitate a reluctant, albeit deliberate, throwing in of the towel and enjoining of the Kalonzo and Kibaki campaigns.

Naturally, Kalonzo comes out as a more pro-establishment figure than one with the balls to go the mile. If he were to succumb to the 'intelligence reports' that indicates that he is a sure Veep (if a stop-gap one to be dumped in 2012 for Uhuru or Saitoti's ascendancy to the presidency), he is likely to slow down his campaign under the pretext that 'Kenyans had decided for either the extremist Raila or the moderate Kibaki'. Being concerned for the 'stability of the Nation', he decides to give up his presidential bid and ask his followers (read the Akamba) to vote for ODM-K MPs and cast the presidential ballot either way. The hope in the Kibaki campaign is that the natural choice for the ODM-K followers is Kibaki because of the bitter-sweet rivalry between their man and Raila. In this light, see the 10% 'allocated' to Kalonzo as a mixed signal that in spite of expending a lot of resources (money, and which can be repaid from the billions in PNU's coffers) and energy, he had only improved two percentage points from his traditional pool of 8%.

This will be informed by the assumption that Kalonzo obstinacy and pride would not betray the PNU projection and that being wise and calculating about tomorrow he had better support his Bantu cousins in Gema. Therefore, the bandons altogether or slows down his campaign and in that case PNU goes full throttle to Ukambani and sings praises about Kalonzo's clean record and the 'wrong timing' of his candidature. The Kamba should vote for Kibaki now, Kalonzo may be supported in future by the traditional Kibaki vote-basket. Blah, blah, blah.

I tend to think, therefore that this 10% is meant to 'frustrate Kalonzo' and help him give in (and give up). Matters are not helped by sketchy but consistent reports in the intelligence community filtering in to the effect that Mutula Kilonzo, his voluble Secretary General is being boxed in (over tax evasion during his deal-making?) by the KRA through (you got it right), Mr Waweru. Reportedly, Kilonzo has up to Monday (10th) to lead his (whole or part of) ODM-K to a PNU deal. Add this to the interesting revelation, if you like it to be so-called, that among Kalonzo's firm supporters and advisers is the embattled AIC Bishop, Moi confidant and regular State House visitor- Rev Silas Yego. Even if we wish to rule out any role by the politically savvy Rev Yego, remember that he has a battle for the control of the AIC (much like Rev Jackson Kosgey is fighting for the control of the Full Gospel Church!) pitting him against some erstwhile supporters in the AIC church in Nandi and the few Gikuyu adherents. He therefore needs Kalonzo, if to placate the other large AIC constituency of Ukambani which will then help prop him. It is not possible that Sila likes Kalonzo for the latter's politics, it is for his (Sila's) calculated survival. But as a man who was 'made by Moi' and continues to draw a lot of support from him (including financial), he is likely to do Mr Moi's bidding more than Kalonzo's. Remember 'he who pays the piper calls the tunes'.

I have this gutsy feeling, then that Steadman needed to do the groundwork: portray Kalonzo's campaign as making no meaningful headway and then Sila comes in with the rest of the deal. Wild allegations? Maybe, but watch this space! The idea will be to 'shift the support from Kalonzo rather than Raila', because the latter's support seems stuck in the believe that he is the man to beat.

PNU Campaign strategy deciphered

It is now apparent that even without straining we can see what PNU has gone out to do.
1. Ministers should take full blame from the people and absolve him from the same as much as possible. You will hear that in answer to allegations of insensitivity, arrogance and belligerence, his disciples have chosen to take the blows in order to sanitise him. In this light, you heard that it was not Kibaki but Kimunya who messed by dismissing the 'Mau Title deeds' as mere pieces of paper. Certainly the sting was taken from Kibaki, and since Kimunya is 'local' and doesn't fall within the constituency of those who were hurt and offended, you and I will be hoodwinked into seeing a harmless Kibaki 'surrounded by an arrogant mob of ministers'.

2. Identify pliable populations among the opposition-leaning communities and inundate them with pledge after pledge. Give them enough time to vent off their anger to harbingers like Uhuru Kenyatta and Njenga Karume to level the road for an eventual Kibaki visit. Why are Karume and Uhuru camping in Kipsigiisland? They have identified a fissure and waning of zest among certain quarters of the population. By camping in one section, they succeed in sowing seeds of suspicion.

3. On another front, they made sure that certain repugnant personalities are kept away from Kibaki. You will not see Governor Michuki in a Kibaki campaign, neither are you likely to see Nyachae in order to optimise the presence of youthful 'agents of confusion' like Uhuru Kenyatta, Mungatana and others.

4. Sustain a fear-mongering campaign to display the Kalenjiin for example as unsafe and vulnerable 'except in a Kibaki government'. You all heard of the leaflets (which message reached me at 8PM Kenyan time Mon, but which I initially doubted). If the aspect of fear is successfully instilled in the electorate, the gullible folk will troop to Kibaki's fold and 'kazi itaenderea'.

5. Sustain a negative media propaganda campaign against Raila.

6. Offer PNU and Kalonzo a deluge of state-media coverage while sustaining a tactful blackout on ODM activities.

7. Promote violence against Raila in PNU-leaning regions while potraying Kalonzo as harmless and barely threatening (and threatened) to the PNU campaign.

In view of these, how will civic education aimed at promoting rights awareness and help to make informed judgements be promoted?

PNU's confusion a recipe for a chaotic government

Forget for a while that PNU will lose this election. Going by the house of Babel that is the PNU behemoth of twenty-some parties, it is not difficult to see why each of them is clinging to Kibaki. Some, because of being briefcase parties and having no better way to afford publicity but in this 'mass amalgamation' of confusion called PNU. Assuming that the disorder were to be carried out to the electoral victory, it will not be difficult for you and I to visualise a disjointed government which will be driven asunder by several ingredients not least being:

1. Demand by each 'constituent party' to have at least an MP as a minister resulting in an unwieldy government bloated for no other reason but to appease the 'contributors to victory'. Let us view this in light of the Kombo Syndrome, aka appointments by blackmail. Would it be unreasonable to imagine that the players in that government will each demand 'a (fair) share of the government'? Knowing Kibaki's slippery nature post-election and since he will not be seeking re-election and thus does not need any future support, what if he dumps them and reneges on that make-shift arrangement? What if he honours it, anyway, and he has to include all the 'pretenders' to his (rag-tag)government, what does this bode for the budgetary allocations and the economy?
2. Coalitions that are fabricated in advance of electoral victory and the instability of the same in the case of a close electoral victory. Will Kibaki really have any leverage to realise his 'dreams' (pardon my generosity with terms here!) for Kenya? The pluralism in his coalition means that there will be an unnecessarily large coterie of interests to cater for when executing certain merciless manifesto proposals. In an event that one group feels offended, would it walk out and hence precipitate a collapse of government? Do we have any lessons from the Narc coalition as well as those from Italy, Israel and any other?
3. Kanu's re-engineering and its strategic emergence as a 'senior partner' in PNU with Uhuru's confession in Thika (reported in the media) to the effect that he will be seeking the presidential vote in 2012. What does Kanu's eclipse of Ford-K, Ford-P, Narc-K and all the other founder parties of PNU mean for Kibaki's march on to State House? Is it too early to imagine that a Kibaki succession begins in earnest on Dec 28, 2007 whether PNU is in the opposition or in government? While Kombo tries to out-do Saitoti (Narc-K), Uhuru (Kanu), Biwott (New-Kanu) and Mwakwere (Shirikisho), will government business suffer? Is it hard for Kenyans to see that after betraying the Narc dream, Kibaki's indecision led him to abandon Narc-K which seemed better equipped and ready to torpedo him to power? I felt like he betrayed the trusted Lieutenants in Narc-K who invested heavily in terms of finances, goodwill and time to build a machinery for him to ascend to power. Having a trait of betrayal doesn't help Kibaki, does it? Kanu's strengthening has given the former thieves and pilferers of State coffers a new lease of life. With its re-emergence and the tactful repositioning of the grey-haired backers to give a false public impression that Kibaki is Obako, a youthful, chic and romantic sugar-daddy. But lazed with Kanu are its bad history of graft and sleaze and although Kibaki may harp on the success of his team at reviving the economy, it is not lost on the casual observer that the government has not 'grown' the economy. Rather Kenyans have been more productive because of an environment for which Kibaki's hands-off, legs-off and everything-off (Uhuru hates to be reminded of this, certainly) has allowed Kenyans to go about their business. In any case even Wanjiru at State House was destined to achieve a positive economic growth compared to the ruin of Kanu. For Kibaki to wine and dine with the main engineers of the economic misery that Kenyans went through, from the architects of Goldenberg, Anglo-Leasing, conversion of KCC to KCC-2000, the rape Kenya Seed, NCPB, KGGCU aka KFA, Milling Corporation of Kenya and countless others is to rewind the face-value of that achievement that he is credited for. Kanu is therefore an asset only to itself, for while it barks and snorts, it will be able to give a false hope that it has a muscle. Yet the resurgence of Kanu in PNU and its eventual eclipsing of the few remaining 'change agents' therein is a slap in the face of the so many Kenyans who were wounded and scarred by 'baba na mama'. With Kanu's adoption of a front-line support for Kibaki, and his immortal waving of the hereditary one-finger salute bodes bad for Kenya. Kanu is back, through life member Kibaki and other 'club members' and we can save Kenya by consigning them to history's 'better forgotten gallows', resounding electoral defeat.
4. To vote for PNU is to vote for hegemony, government confusion and stalemate, bloated government, political dishonesty and Kanu repackaged as something else. If Kenyans want to get an objective break from its ugly past, the best it can do is to reject political calumny and chicanery.

Comments on Kass FM on Wed 28 Nov 2007

Araap Sang,
Igatwo Kirwa, kale ng'oo ta koongeno. Anyway, kany ateebe tebuutik aeng' anan ko somok.
1. Kaaga chamdoi Kaap Kibaki koyai campaign biik che boisiei eng' sirikali (civil servants) i?

2. Tos ileen nee eng' abusnateet noo ka iboor PNU amu karatasiisiek che kakileeta eng' emeetab Kalenjiin che ibooru Arap Moi komwogei Raila? Obwotii biikab PNU ole abusanik mising bikab Kalenjiin is?

3. Kemwa agobo ADC Kimwani ago katainaan amu ingen biik che maitoos ak mosoonik ole uee asiista kole biik che ki iip mbareetab Kimwani ADC ko choo kikigoochi ADC Chabali, ADC Tall Trees, ADC Malindi ak mbareetab Prison eng' Kitale. Aboote murenik 21 che kikisoom mbareetab Kimwani keele kobunji Tindireet Educational Bursary Fund. Kikimii ak OCS araap Kosgey (Chumbi Nyiiri) ak Araap Melly nebo Kaap Tien ak Kipketer Meli kobooto agot Khaniri. Tos ingen ile kikigoochi mbaranootok Kiplelei Ltd tabala ne ki ip chichooto bo Leelgoteet kogochi Saanik?

4. Keteeb ile ng'oo che ki iluul ADC, KCC, Cereals ak KGGCU. Kas amwaun Kirwa, bichootok ke iitweech tuugul ko che yochin campaign choruenguung! Ngosik beerbeer, kotiny koeech ng'amoot.

Nominations

Araap Sang,
Kokowalak saisiek is wee no igeere matakai ketuiye. Amo emosto eng 'leen nee emet'. Aleen kongoi amu ko igochgooch biikyook aiin kamach ko erng'eeng' emeet amu kewelinweekab nominations. Ne bo aeng, kany korook alenji biikab Kalenjiin 'pongezi' amu ma tarta koroti eng' toreetab sogeek (nominations). Ne bo aeng' ko ngageere kou yo mitei tigenoiik eng wagiik (keberweek) tugul. Kiit kityo ne nyolu kineetgei ko keele eng' kanyoleetabgei ne u noo bo siasa ko agoi ko miitei chitei ne kichuute ng'ony. Ago nyolu kooyan kole 'kasuuryo werrikab goorogonak' amu ye imwee goot ak iwe age ib inyoruu as ile anga ng'ichegei chuun alage miising kosiir got ne ko imwee. Geer ko uu ni Joshua, geerei biik ko uu yoo ko chang'a kaimuutik eng' ODM.

Nga noo ko eng iman ageere kou yoo ko kaikai nitok kosiir alak. Eng' oliinbo Kaap Chelit ko komakomii nominations eng' keberweek che chang. Kimwae nee agobo PNU. Ngaleen ingen biik kole korook ko kiisip kogochigei che chang eng icheek "direct nomination'. Kigeere agot kora keele nda kai ko ki chama agenge PNU kou ODM ta ya miising boisieet. Amu i, geer ko uu surieetab Njenga KArume ak Stanley Githunguri. Ko ango ka keechorchi tuumdo Njenga Karume, koweek Githunguri kole, ngaaga mitei Kanu ago chamdayat anyoor certificate. Kooro tugul ole kinyoor agine certificate. Kale toos mogeere ole defection ne bo biik che kong'eete chamaitab PNU age agoi age, ko uu Narc-Kenya agoi Safina. Nda kigeere kenae keele nga kibiit kiy neu ko uu chiito kobaate matoogu amu miitei tugul eng PNU.

Eng' ng'aleek che nwogeen ko nyoolu chito ne kaa kiinyol kole 'akawai let Kaap Maasia" ak kookany let. Kiito age ko ale, amat oogany kong'aalak bichoo ombenooti amu kitigiin ko itei oteeres kuraiisiekwook ak eng' let koweek korotwechoo koomo komochei waleet. Asome biikab Kalenjiin ale amat koberbergei chi ak kobirchi kuura Kalonzo anan ko Kibaki amu ye uu notok ko kee egu bunyootab waleet. Amoogany koomuook Kaddu ak ODM-K, si ogeere ko kotaach biik che che chaang ko amu ko karaiin. Nda kootinyei biik ta konyooru bichoo koruachi ko nyiitat goot. Asome biikyook, 'kimooi magargar'. Ongetooret araap Mibei, kewal emeet!