Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Opinion Polls, comments on Kass FM 08 Aug 2007

Arap Sang,
Thank you for the talk today. Let me hit the road and say it straight:
1. YES, Kibaki is leading because he ALONE is being compared to a 'house of babel' (ODM), aspirants who are yet to agree on one of them. If the ODM had a single candidate for a one-on-one with Kibaki then 'ko ng'uui taet Kibaki'.
2. Secondly, YES ODM is (at least has been) the most popular party because Kibaki's parties are three (DP, Narc, Narc-Kenya)! With a decision on one party, matters may change. Furthermore, Kalonzo has decided to rock the house and who knows what that means for the orange!
3. What is encouraging, however, is that these polls indicate that Kenyans are sending a clear message to politicians to make decisions guided by the public preference and perception. I would still call for caution in these statistics because the number of people that were interviewed are few and your callers should be telling us if they saw people asking for these opinions in their rural areas. If not, then somebody could be sitting in Nairobi and manufacturing figures. Be careful with statistics, once somebody knows that people trust them easily, they will always come up with funny figures. Like J-M Seroney said, "I hate Statistics".
Sere Nyou woi!

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